INDICATOR: April Existing Home Sales

NAROFF ECONOMIC ADVISORS, Inc.

Joel L. Naroff

President and Chief Economist

KEY DATA: Sales: +7.6%; Single-Family: +7.4%; Condos: +9.1%

IN A NUTSHELL:   “The government incentives to buy homes worked, but who knows where we go from here.”

WHAT IT MEANS:   Existing home sales surged in April as the federal incentives to buy came to an end.  This, of course was expected.

We saw a similar pattern last fall when the first iteration of the home buyers’ incentive neared an end.  This time, even though long-time owners were added to the mix, the run-up in sales was not nearly as dramatic.  Indeed, the peak was about ten percent lower.

That said, there was a really nice pick-up in demand.   Sales of both single-family and condos were solid.  Geographically, the increases were not that well distributed.  Purchases were up over 20% in the Northeast, nearly 10% in the South and West but down over 6% in the West.  I honestly cannot explain the situation in the West, but it is what the National Association of Realtors says it is.

Prices continue to rise, mostly for single-family homes.  As for supply, it increased.  As I have said on many occasions, I expected that to happen and I looked forward to it as a sign that homeowners have rising confidence in the market and they finally think they can unload their albatrosses. 

MARKETS AND FED POLICY IMPLICATIONS:  This was a very solid report but it doesn’t really tell us what condition the housing market is in.  That is because the government has interfered with the market.

We should expect that sales will fall fairly sharply over the next couple of months and only after that adjustment will we get any decent picture of the market.  The terrible mortgage applications numbers clearly point to slowing sales but that was one week of numbers.  It will take a while before the craziness created by the federal policy is washed out of the data.

I believe the housing market will slowly and steadily improve over the second half of the year as extremely low mortgage rates, modestly improving credit availability and job gains convince people to buy.  Rising prices cannot hurt either.  The markets will not probably do much with this number as Europe still seems to be the issue du jour.

There is also a lot of other data coming out this week including consumer confidence.  So caution will likely be the watch word.  This also doesn’t put a whole lot of pressure on the Fed to do anything, not with a possible European slowdown adding another headwind to the recovery.

FROM: Christopher J. Brown, President.  The information provided herein may not be the point of view of Guardian Settlement Agents, Inc.  This information is being provided as informational only; Guardian Settlement Agents, Inc., its successors, assigns, or affiliates is not selling or is licensed to sell security or investment products.  You should consult your licensed financial consultant for investment advice.

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